Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1147
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 06 2025 18:22:28

ACUS11 KWNS 061820
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061820=20
KYZ000-061915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1147
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 061820Z - 061915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A semi-organized band of storms with some wind damage
potential will spread eastward across eastern Kentucky through the
afternoon.  A severe thunderstorm watch is being considered.

DISCUSSION...Earlier multicell storm clusters have grown into a
somewhat organized band of storms across central KY, aided by 30 kt
midlevel flow sampled by the LMK VWP.  Given the downstream
environment with moderately large buoyancy (MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg)
and just enough westerly shear in the lowest 3-5 km AGL layer to
help maintain updrafts on the leading edge of the developing cold
pool, there is potential for some wind-damage threat to persist
through the afternoon into eastern KY.  For these reasons, a severe
thunderstorm watch is being considered within the next 30 minutes or
so.

...Thompson.. 06/06/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-2EkCdElFqKkaztYGb9eMX-HXodOTs1g7H_sfWeycrscfh6SN9vWfUNd1-grL89KQzG7dnzwR=
JRopaF0b21QvfAen4g$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON   37198268 36868337 36728402 36708459 36728511 36848530
            37158515 37508495 38088482 38318465 38478423 38428362
            38128313 37838268 37198268=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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