Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1144
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 06 2025 14:47:48

ACUS11 KWNS 061447
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061447=20
KYZ000-INZ000-061645-

Mesoscale Discussion 1144
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0947 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...Western/central Kentucky and far southern Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 061447Z - 061645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few multicell storms with a marginal hail/wind threat
will be possible through early afternoon.  A watch is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...A loosely organized cluster of storms is spreading
eastward across western KY and far southern IN, in association with
a diffuse midlevel perturbation moving along and south of a stalled
front.  Destabilization is ongoing south of the front as
temperatures warm into the lower 80s, which will boost MLCAPE into
the 1500-2500 J/kg range over the next few hours.  Though there is
modest enhancement to flow above 5 km AGL, flow below is relatively
weak and storms are expected to remain primarily multicellular.=20
Thermodynamic profiles could support isolated hail near 1 inch
diameter and isolated wind damage with downbursts, but the overall
severe threat appears too marginal to warrant a severe thunderstorm
watch through midday-early afternoon.

...Thompson/Smith.. 06/06/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-4lBGHpswUs7kTwpEGf1304cyJsmfHvOP4GZ28Ert0o6l9JrN0Wva4Di2H15x5BVrQ8PYBSFb=
XEDQmpdZER0aJcQFLk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...PAH...

LAT...LON   36748772 37138778 37278765 37688719 38418611 38648548
            38498485 38008452 37568456 37088487 36678605 36678739
            36748772=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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