Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jun 06 2025 14:06:38 AWUS01 KWNH 061406 FFGMPD ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-061800- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0379 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1005 AM EDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Areas affected...Southeast OK...Western and Central AR Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 061405Z - 061800Z SUMMARY...A strong and well-organized MCS will continue to southeast through areas of southeast OK and into western and central AR. Additional areas of flash flooding in association with this will be possible. DISCUSSION...A long-lived, but still potent MCS continues to advance across portions of the southern Plains and into adjacent areas of the lower and middle MS Valley. Cold convective tops continue across especially southeast OK and the airmass out ahead of the MCS cold pool/outflow boundary remains moderately unstable in an elevated fashion with MUCAPE values of a much as 1000 to 2000+ J/kg. A southwesterly low-level jet on the order of 30 to 35 kts continues to help favor a moderately strong axis of moisture transport up across the region as well extending from the Red River Valley up through portions of central and northern AR. The early morning hires guidance led especially by the HRRR seems to be weakening the overall organization of the MCS a bit too fast given the current character of the convective cloud top canopy, with the RRFS guidance a bit more persistence. Some gradual weakening as a whole is expected to the MCS by later this morning as the leading edge of the convection advances farther downstream. However, the southwest flank of the MCS over southeast OK and potentially into western AR is exhibiting increasing signs for cell-training in the short-term (next 2 to 3 hours) which will allow for heavy rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour to potentially result in some 3-hour totals of 2 to 4+ inches through midday before eventually weakening. Additional areas of isolated to scattered flash flooding will continue to be possible at least through midday with the southwest flanking line of the MCS activity. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4cR7XrRLixdOE8bwdaWEDfi28Tfjs5GiCuLCgQ5mHwawRSNwrZfAgaV4ON2Xs0ZUlYP5= XyI_fnLbkvgmmWv--h8HxeM$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 35449329 35239193 34229199 33779312 33669544=20 33989684 34639653 34929571 35099448=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .