Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1143
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 06 2025 12:46:48

ACUS11 KWNS 061246
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061246=20
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-061415-

Mesoscale Discussion 1143
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma far southern Mississippi...and
northwest Arkansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 375...

Valid 061246Z - 061415Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 375
continues.

SUMMARY...A damaging wind/tornado threat should persist for a few
more hours.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms continues to produce sporadic
damaging/severe wind gusts with occasional mesovorticies and line
embedded tornadoes. Only around 1000 to 1500 J/kg MUCAPE exists
ahead of the line now. In addition, a 40 knot low-level jet which
helped to maintain the MCS through the overnight period remains
across eastern Oklahoma and far western Arkansas with a weaker
low-level jet across central Arkansas and southern Missouri.
Therefore, as storms continue to move east of the stronger low-level
jet and the low-level jet weakens through the morning, expect this
line of storms to weaken within the weak to moderately unstable
environment.

In the meantime, a 35 knot low-level jet from the KSRX VWP and >200
m2/s2 will continue to support a severe wind/embedded tornado threat
in the near term before this weakening becomes more prevalent by
mid-morning.

...Bentley.. 06/06/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_s4mSLcw135dH2C-LomdhrUkqeMlCkG6e-Vnvfq6oKEIVs4_6-25Ib0QDrNuAy6y3dwzmB-Mn=
p6fkdJyjPF7EC-3DKc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   36839413 36769281 36509228 35749233 35129276 34589358
            34269414 34129478 34509552 34729585 34999597 35349534
            35859480 36199452 36839413=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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