Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jun 06 2025 12:16:22 ACUS01 KWNS 061216 SWODY1 SPC AC 061214 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0714 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS...AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible extending into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys, and over parts of southern New England. Damaging winds are the primary concern in these areas. ....Mid MS and TN Valleys... Morning radar loop shows a mature quasi-linear MCS over eastern OK tracking into western AR. This system has produced sporadic severe wind reports overnight, and may continue to pose that risk for a few more hours. Some weakening is expected through late morning, with eventual rejuvenation of storms as they spread across parts of KY/TN and vicinity. Model guidance varies on extent of severe storm coverage. However, favorable westerly flow aloft, dewpoints in the 70s, and pockets of strong daytime heating will encourage intense thunderstorm re-development. ....High Plains... The forecast scenario for today is similar to yesterday, with two areas of focus for severe thunderstorm activity. One is along the CO foothills, where moist/southeasterly low-level winds and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Storms are expected to intensify by mid-late afternoon along the foothills and spread southeastward into the adjacent plains. Forecast soundings show generally straight-line hodographs, which will promote splitting supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Activity may organize upscale during the evening over southwest KS and spread across OK overnight. Farther south, yesterday's and last night's convection has reinforced a surface outflow boundary which will extend across west TX. Similar to yesterday, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. ...Southern New England... A plume of seasonally high PW values extends across the OH Valley into southern New England. Modest air mass destabilization is expected by mid day with an axis of 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE expected to extend across southern New England by 18z. While deep layer shear is not forecast to be that strong, adequate flow should exist for at least some organization. Locally damaging winds are the primary concern with storms that form along this instability axis. ...Hart/Bentley.. 06/06/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .