Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1142
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 06 2025 09:46:02

ACUS11 KWNS 060944
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060944=20
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-061115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1142
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0444 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...northeast Oklahoma...northwest Arkansas...and
potentially far southwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 060944Z - 061115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed downstream of
watch 374 across northwest Arkansas and perhaps far southern
Missouri.

DISCUSSION...A squall line extends from the KS/OK border in
northeast Oklahoma to central Oklahoma. This line has mostly 50 to
60 mph wind gusts with occasional stronger wind gusts with embedded
supercell structures (67 knots in Guthrie). Expect this to continue
as this line of storms continues to move east. 1500 to 2500 J/kg
MUCAPE and a strengthening low-level jet (40 knots from TLX and INX
VWP) should be sufficient to support maintenance of this MCS.=20

Therefore, a downstream severe thunderstorm watch will likely be
needed across northwest Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma and perhaps
into southwest Missouri.

...Bentley/Hart.. 06/06/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!531X6S2kkCEW8-iC05JxYmRtuxl26XPUVSTyuB4koeSPI-6D4ncMINXeD39yjTmkbsw1xgvLy=
Nz1-5WjwGDt0r7JMNo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   34919610 35389578 36339515 36669502 36819450 36689358
            36449250 35929225 35219241 34909284 34739380 34669506
            34699602 34919610=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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