Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1141
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 06 2025 08:05:17

ACUS11 KWNS 060805
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060804=20
OKZ000-060930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1141
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0304 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...northern and central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 374...

Valid 060804Z - 060930Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 374
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue into the early morning hours
with a threat for large hail, severe wind gusts, and potentially a
tornado.

DISCUSSION...A well-developed bow echo has developed across
northwest Oklahoma with strong to occasionally severe wind gusts
reported. In addition, slower moving storms with embedded supercell
structures continue east across northern Oklahoma with occasional
large hail and severe wind gusts reported (including 53 knots at
KBKN and 62 knots at KPNC). These storms may also pose some tornado
threat given the favorable storm mode and strengthening low-level
shear (300+ m2/s2 0-1km SRH per TLX VWP) Downstream of the bow-echo,
SPC mesoanalysis shows instability has increased with MUCAPE over
3000 J/kg over central Oklahoma. This increasing instability has
occurred primarily due to low-level moisture advection (dewpoints
now in the low 70s) and steepening mid-level lapse rates. Given the
increased instability across central Oklahoma, expect this line of
storms to persist and perhaps strengthen over the next few hours.
Therefore, severe thunderstorm watch 374 may need to be expanded
south a few rows of counties within the next hour or two, if it
appears imminent that a severe threat may persist south of the
current watch.

...Bentley/Hart.. 06/06/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_8Ijy_5kB9A_Swx2rugbM0xkqozMoqCluHxpdNL_9MsvYAqZBf4YGGWdk68L0U4vDDmZdWpoU=
tCHavgi1eBG-CNvPXM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   35889984 35999957 36119917 36399869 36719839 36899793
            36929733 36809692 36649652 36259591 35739577 35259572
            35019635 35029739 35049833 35279878 35449905 35649950
            35889984=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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