Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1139
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 06 2025 05:34:27

ACUS11 KWNS 060534
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060533=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-060630-

Mesoscale Discussion 1139
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...northern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 060533Z - 060630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch is needed soon.

DISCUSSION...A well developed MCS has developed near the TX/OK
Panhandle and is starting to accelerate southeastward. The
downstream airmass was convectively overturned earlier by a cluster
of storms this afternoon/evening. This was evident on the 00Z OUN
RAOB. At least some thermodynamic recovery has likely occurred, but
some remnant boundary layer stability remains across the region.
This casts some doubt on intensity of the severe weather threat
through the overnight period. However, a strengthening low-level
jet, apparent on the KFDR and KTLX VWP will support MCS maintenance
through the evening within a moderate to strongly sheared
environment. This should support some threat for large hail, some
severe wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two, where line
orientation becomes more orthogonal to the low-level shear vector.

...Bentley/Hart.. 06/06/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9psuChXZCcVOSGiQxyM_WyPGTaTLL5v_-ROkadKJex-xvvhLOpJKk-jasOQNppSDUwNPaDLa9=
sjox_smPJgXhQbz1Ps$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   35239654 35199730 35329826 35479930 35739981 36349992
            37089967 37069848 37029688 36639605 35569598 35239654=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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