Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jun 06 2025 01:01:12 ACUS01 KWNS 060101 SWODY1 SPC AC 060059 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue across the southern and central Plains tonight. Several tornadoes (some possibly strong), large to very large hail, and severe gusts are possible. Isolated severe gusts are also possible the next few hours over parts of the Northeast. ....01z Update... Early-evening satellite imagery suggests a weak short-wave trough is cresting an elongated southern-U.S. ridge over the High Plains. This feature is currently located over eastern CO/northeast NM and will approach the MO Ozark region by the end of the period. Partly in response to this feature, LLJ should increase ahead of the short wave over the next few hours across western OK into extreme southern KS. As a result, a corridor of increasing low-level warm advection is expected to focus along the KS/OK border and this should encourage significant convective development by mid evening. 00z sounding from AMA exhibited around 3000 J/kg SBCAPE with around 50kt 0-6km shear and minimal CINH. This air mass will be drawn into the aforementioned warm-advection corridor and readily convect as the LLJ increases. Farther southwest, a cluster of supercells persists across the TX South Plains along the periphery of early-day rain-cooled boundary layer. LLJ is expected to aid this activity as it propagates east-southeast across northwest TX. Very large hail, along with a continued risk for tornadoes persists with this activity. If supercell mergers evolve into an MCS then damaging winds may become more common later this evening. ....Northeast... A small cluster of strong/severe thunderstorms continues across northeast PA into southern NY ahead of a weak short-wave trough. Latest radar data suggests a weak MCV may be evident over Tioga County PA, and this may encourage convection immediately downstream into Delaware County NY over the next few hours. ...Darrow.. 06/06/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .