Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1134
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 05 2025 23:45:49

ACUS11 KWNS 052344
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052344=20
TXZ000-060145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1134
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...parts of southwest Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 368...

Valid 052344Z - 060145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 368
continues.

SUMMARY...Some risk for severe hail and wind may continue in
lingering strong storms north of the Rio Grande River, to the east
of the Davis Mountains, through 7-9 PM CDT.  However, it appears
unlikely that a new severe weather watch will be needed.

DISCUSSION...One large, sustained supercell has finally propagated
off the higher terrain to the south of Fort Stockton and weakened.=20
Although there has been a general increase in thunderstorm
development in its wake, perhaps supported by forcing for ascent
associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, mid-level
height rises and warming appear underway across the region.  Cooling
associated with convective outflow has further contributed to
increasing inhibition for boundary-layer layer parcels, with the
onset of boundary-layer cooling with the loss of daytime heating, in
areas not impacted by outflow, slowly progressing through the next
few hours.  These trends appear to be leading to diminishing severe
weather potential, but the risk for severe hail and a few more
strong surface gusts may persist another hour or two across parts of
southern Pecos into Terrell counties.

...Kerr.. 06/05/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5yfv5LjPRE-Syeh7XXrli07oNFy19OSFWJDAFLKcuK77uL9EQlOslR5oF5wcnzCAhal3XKN1v=
yRlx-7X71SzeUo5XYU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   30870225 30890187 30180164 29850280 29990377 30500360
            30870225=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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