Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1133
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 05 2025 23:05:45

ACUS11 KWNS 052305
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052305=20
TXZ000-060100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1133
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0605 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...parts of the Texas South Plains

Concerning...Tornado Watch 367...

Valid 052305Z - 060100Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 367 continues.

SUMMARY...A large, intense supercell structure may be maintained a
few more hours, accompanied by a continuing risk for large to giant
hail and perhaps increasing potential for a strong tornado while
spreading into and east of the Lubbock vicinity through 7-9 PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...One rather notable, isolated intense supercell has been
maintained the past hour or two and slowly progressed across the New
Mexico/Texas state border vicinity to the south of Clovis.  This
appears focused along a zone of differential surface heating which
extends east-southeastward toward the Lubbock area, where 2-hourly
surface pressure falls in excess of 2 mb have been noted in the
21-22Z surface observations.

In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, beneath 40-50 kt
westerly flow around 500 mb, a continuing inflow of seasonably moist
boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE on the order of 3000+ J/kg
appears likely to be maintained at least several more hours.=20
Although elevated mixed layer air may be slowly warming and
contributing to increasing inhibition, intense supercell development
seems likely to persist, while a nocturnal southerly low-level jet
strengthens (including to 30+ kt around 850 mb).  Enlarging
low-level hodographs may contribute to increasing tornadic
potential, including the risk for a strong tornado, as this storm
propagates into/across the Lubbock vicinity through 00-02Z.

...Kerr.. 06/05/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-lk7ihoMza3c6EQewqyZByJ5Utt__UD90J5jOguPWvIWrnXqsrqvTmsKJq8YZwYA6nN2Af_Bu=
9gnwynxaDD03V-44f4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...

LAT...LON   34000265 34110184 33860091 33350051 33270140 33520249
            34000265=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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