Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1131
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 05 2025 21:34:29

ACUS11 KWNS 052133
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052132=20
NYZ000-PAZ000-052300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1131
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0432 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...portions of central Pennsylvania into southern New
York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 052132Z - 052300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across portions of central
PA into southern NY. At least a few additional instances of severe
hail and damaging gusts are likely through the evening. A WW
issuance may be needed, particularly near the PA/NY border if
convective trends suggest a greater coverage of intense storms.

DISCUSSION...A loosely organized line of thunderstorms has
intensified over the last couple of hours, with severe hail and
damaging gusts recently reported with some of the stronger storms.
These storms are progressing eastward amid a marginally unstable
airmass (i.e. 1000 J/kg MLCAPE), driven by low 60s F dewpoints
beneath 6 C/km mid-level lapse rates. Deep-layer shear is weak
overall, though some slightly stronger flow and gradual veering with
height over NY is promoting modestly curved hodographs. Here,
supercell structures are in progress, and they may continue for a
few more hours with the overall highest severe hail/wind threat over
the region. The severe threat should remain isolated farther to the
southwest in central PA. A WW issuance may be needed.

...Squitieri/Guyer.. 06/05/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_ghyB3hs70q3FNC1e51TPhffWjiOJ_jmmj4q9OSk_J9Vy-3PPA5vlk1OSQaQ70jESen2XvO6j=
puPsUSYhm6rKtR4R8g$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

LAT...LON   40737999 41757869 42577690 42927616 42777519 42227482
            41597522 41067643 40387755 40237823 40277890 40367940
            40737999=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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