Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Jun 05 2025 21:33:46 AWUS01 KWNH 052132 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-060330- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0372 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 531 PM EDT Thu Jun 05 2025 Areas affected...Eastern CO...Southwest KS...OK/TX Panahandles Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 052130Z - 060330Z SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will be organizing and expanding in coverage over the next several hours, with eventual MCS development likely over the southern High Plains. Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding will be possible as the storms grow upscale and produce heavy rainfall rates. DISCUSSION...The mid-afternoon GOES-E IR/WV suite shows the shearing out of mid-level shortwave energy across the central and southern High Plains in general, and this energy coupled with localized orographics and proximity of a front should favor the expansion of convection over the next several hours. Already the most recent visible satellite and radar imagery shows thunderstorms initiating over to the east of the Front Range and also farther off to the southeast over southeast CO and far southwest KS where there is an area of low pressure helping to drive stronger low-level moisture convergence. A nose of MLCAPE values reaching 1500 to 2500 J/kg is seen in the latest RAP analysis along with effective bulk shear values of 30 to 50 kts. With additional boundary layer destabilization expected in the near-term over southeast CO adjacent areas of southwest KS and the OK/TX Panhandles, a general increase in the coverage of convection should tend to occur from northwest to southeast as convection near and over the terrain advances downstream into the strongly favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. Eventually by later this evening there should be an environment conducive for merging convective clusters which will include a combination of multi-cell and supercell thunderstorms, and this will likely promote a stronger MCS evolution that will impact areas of especially southwest KS. A strengthening nocturnal southerly low-level jet over the aforementioned the front by later this evening will be a key contributor to the eventual MCS evolution via certainly strong warm air advection and moisture transport. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour are expected with the stronger storms, and with cell-merger activity likely, some spotty 2 to 3+ inch rainfall totals are expected over the next few hours. However, by later this evening, the latest hires model guidance led by the 18Z HREF and 12Z REFS supports areas of southwest KS seeing heavier totals of 3 to 5 inches given the level of MCS organization that is expected. Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding will be possible regionally as the convection continues to initiate, organize and expand in coverage heading into the evening hours. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7GyJorGDAXsLro2QlqzyDpLlnFkaoqrlNJ8GO2YK5gABx-8csbLZXpbijfepe253NHNk= YRjCcP-XmUSnU-mxMoJC48g$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...DDC...GLD...OUN...PUB... ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 40330409 40270300 39860230 38920094 38089869=20 36759876 36140040 36230243 36990391 38380521=20 39870512=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .