Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1130
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 05 2025 20:52:35

ACUS11 KWNS 052052
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052051=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-052215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1130
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...Parts of the Texas Trans-Pecos

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 368...

Valid 052051Z - 052215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 368
continues.

SUMMARY...Risk of very large hail continues across parts of the
Texas Trans-Pecos.

DISCUSSION...Splitting supercells are ongoing across the TX
Trans-Pecos -- in an environment with long/fairly straight
hodographs (around 40-50 kt of effective shear) and 2000-3000 J/kg
MLCAPE. Given the continued splitting/semi-discrete mode, very large
hail (3+ inches) remains the primary concern. In particular, a
large/persistent supercell cluster undergoing additional storm
merging west of Fort Stockton should pose a risk of very large hail
and severe wind gusts -- especially given recent signs of southward
propagation.

...Weinman.. 06/05/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9STk6t1pZh3G1Vo6o_EOHgq_bCQoEUgQKLYFVwbPZ1KyVuJOpZAdmVhVseYlqvPToej7un0Vm=
-e0E6i5sXcLn_ii1sE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   30030272 30360331 30920389 31430418 31720414 32010392
            32110357 31990317 31580287 30810196 30130209 30030272=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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