Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1129
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 05 2025 20:46:44

ACUS11 KWNS 052046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052046=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-052245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1129
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...far eastern NM...TX South Plains

Concerning...Tornado Watch 367...

Valid 052046Z - 052245Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 367 continues.

SUMMARY...Supercell hail and tornado potential increasing through 23
UTC.  A strong tornado or two is probable once a dominant
right-moving supercell becomes established.

DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite/radar mosaic shows the
outflow/differential heating zone and maturing updrafts becoming
sustained along the boundary.  Enhanced storm-relative environmental
helicity (SRH) and elongated hodographs and a very unstable airmass
will strongly favor discrete supercell development.  Giant hail is
forecast over the next 1-3 hours with the stronger supercells (3 to
4 inches in diameter).  The tornado risk will markedly increase over
the next 0.5 to 2 hours as storms begin to propagate within the
moist boundary layer with backed low-level flow and enlarged
hodographs.

...Smith.. 06/05/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6_v6HX667iTqcpx9jkPTSbj7Z4yG1txB_OiE1tToDToaOlaPgSvHTQj2ifkPsUDrkvBpTKhXB=
xiws0zEzM5VDVjpmZo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   33480302 33560337 33810364 34250364 34610367 34790348
            34710307 34430285 33980275 33710255 33510259 33480302=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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