Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1128
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 05 2025 20:33:49

ACUS11 KWNS 052033
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052033=20
KSZ000-052200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1128
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...Parts of southwest Kansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 369...

Valid 052033Z - 052200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 369 continues.

SUMMARY...Risk of very large hail continues with an eastward-moving
supercell in far southwest KS. Tornado risk may be increasing as
well.

DISCUSSION...Ahead of a weak lee cyclone and surface boundary over
far southeastern CO, a supercell has evolved over far southwest KS.
A long/mostly straight hodograph (around 50 kt of 0-6 km shear) per
DDC VWP and moderate surface-based instability should continue to
favor large to very large hail and locally severe gusts with this
activity. Ahead of this storm, visible satellite imagery still shows
billow cloud structures -- indicating antecedent boundary-layer
static stability. However, the associated sheltered boundary layer
should be accompanied by enhanced low-level SRH, and given the
established mesocyclone, the tornado risk may be increasing.

...Weinman.. 06/05/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_rmiQiK3S3_JT3MLhfo_BfjLdli0MrkLiT1kJvc9gWZZz8c-t3Vi7w8PdjKrg24owGIrsUscF=
yurBA7QEMRp70d4cPU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...

LAT...LON   37210172 37310194 37700200 37860170 37950094 37840062
            37340060 37200091 37210172=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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