Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1127
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 05 2025 20:21:43

ACUS11 KWNS 052020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052020=20
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-052215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1127
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...southeast OH...northern WV...southwest PA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 052020Z - 052215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe gusts capable of wind damage may
focus across southeast OH eastward into northern portions of WV and
southwest PA through 7-8pm EDT.

DISCUSSION...An MCV evident in radar imagery has moved
north-northeastward across western OH and another portion of this
mid-level vorticity maximum is moving east across south-central OH.=20
The southern portion of this larger-scale convective-aided
disturbance is likely acting to enhance thunderstorm development
across the eastern 1/3rd of OH late this afternoon.  Surface
conditions ahead of the storm activity in southeast OH have warmed
into the lower 80s with dewpoints in the lower 60s.  Objective
analysis data shows around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE but effective shear at
or below 20 kt.  As a result, storm organization potential will
likely remain limited in terms of more organized multicellular
modes.  However, the MCV may act to focus thunderstorms and an
isolated risk for damaging gusts for the next several hours across
parts of the upper OH Valley.

...Smith.. 06/05/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!90pDvVeyA19aWElZVYzcsHNDarOULqzFKFfOF7kUAA3oMlnN7uErau4AulOKKYrrsPpfyEsWD=
yLC3cg9P5r4J0psRgM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON   39978176 40238151 40528011 40267963 40087952 39767954
            39427980 39198152 39518175 39978176=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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