Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1126
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 05 2025 20:07:17

ACUS11 KWNS 052007
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052006=20
OKZ000-052200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1126
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...Parts of central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 052006Z - 052200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of severe wind gusts and large hail could
continue spreading eastward across central Oklahoma this afternoon.
Trends are being monitored for a possible downstream watch.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has become increasingly organized
as it tracks eastward along a boundary across west-central OK, as it
interacts with a warm/moist air mass amid 40 kt of effective shear.
While an earlier ACARS sounding from OKC and mesoanalysis suggest
lingering inhibition ahead of the ongoing cluster of storms,
continued diurnal heating amid upper 60s dewpoints and modestly
steep lapse rates could support the maintenance of these storms with
eastward extent across central OK through the afternoon. If this
were to occur, the 40 kt of effective shear would continue to
promote an organized cluster (and possibly embedded supercell
structure) -- capable of severe winds gusts and large hail.
Convective trends are being monitored for a possible watch
downstream of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 366.

...Weinman/Thompson.. 06/05/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!66Bec5Ldb-ciRvoLzJtXUZ0C208_Or3JtI1VyOVo88wfVrfhVZdoNK1XCkXN37uclc0mt9NTQ=
prPeYsxh5-fAU-3rbg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   34849851 35209885 35649887 36069841 35969668 35769597
            35149583 34619620 34559673 34849851=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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