Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1123
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 05 2025 18:31:12

ACUS11 KWNS 051831
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051830=20
COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-052030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1123
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...Parts of eastern Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 051830Z - 052030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A few severe storms capable of producing large hail and
severe gusts will be possible through the afternoon. Trends are
being monitored for a possible watch.

DISCUSSION...The latest visible satellite imagery shows increasingly
agitated boundary-layer cumulus over the Front Range into the Sangre
De Cristo Mountains, an east/west-oriented boundary over far
northeastern CO, and a separate boundary extending from a mesoscale
low near the Palmer Divide. Continued heating and lower 50s
dewpoints in the vicinity of these areas of mesoscale ascent should
support widely scattered thunderstorm development over the next few
hours. As thunderstorms track/develop east-southeastward, a
long/straight hodograph (around 40 kt of effective shear) and 1500
J/kg MLCAPE will promote convective organization into clusters and
perhaps supercell structures. Large hail and severe wind gusts could
accompany this activity, though the rich moisture and enhanced
vorticity near the Palmer Divide could support a tornado or two. A
watch is possible for parts of the area.

...Weinman/Smith.. 06/05/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5i_a6SP1tXmJseYtjitwFasy2qnfM8XM1TsItpQ-v7z0zZm5Poyu6rKVA4gPYyUXX5Hup3uNr=
nop0huvAnrRoFSSWz0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   39180520 40650511 41000490 41250438 41260370 41120316
            40780281 40250257 39020260 38030312 37710357 37650421
            38000479 39180520=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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