Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1121
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 05 2025 17:58:19

ACUS11 KWNS 051757
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051756=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-052000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1121
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...Parts of southwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 051756Z - 052000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of supercells capable of producing large to giant
hail and locally severe gusts will increase through the afternoon. A
watch is likely for parts of the area within the hour.

DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer cumulus is deepening along the Davis
Mountains in the TX Trans-Pecos, with additional agitated cumulus
(albeit more shallow) evident into far southeast NM. Continued
diurnal heating amid deep/rich boundary-layer moisture (middle/upper
60s dewpoints) will yield strong surface-based instability. As
inhibition continues to erode, thunderstorms should develop over the
terrain features, before spreading eastward through the afternoon.
The strong buoyancy and a long/straight hodograph (characterized by
around 50 kt of effective shear) will favor discrete/splitting
supercells -- given weak large-ascent. Large to giant hail (3+
inches) will be the main concern with this activity, though severe
gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will also be possible. A watch
will likely be issued within the hour.

...Weinman/Thompson.. 06/05/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!91O26hzqsXk7SC7eq7dqFSKWsEt8RVs2FZjd7nvinAa31pRxvpv_AlISbP4RjGF8JhVM5iVlV=
DZhqh5nQiKiqU3Z7Oo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   30610468 31710467 32370423 32670365 32630275 32400202
            31870188 31180195 30310230 29850272 29540336 29560392
            29940449 30610468=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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