Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Jun 05 2025 07:29:11 ACUS03 KWNS 050729 SWODY3 SPC AC 050728 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern Great Plains to the Southeast States on Saturday through Saturday evening. Damaging winds should be the primary hazard. ....Southern Great Plains to the Southeast... A large MCS is once again expected to be ongoing across the OK vicinity, to the south of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse centered on the eastern Central Plains. Most guidance maintains these as two distinct features with the shortwave moving east into the Midwest and an MCV moving east into the TN Valley. The 00Z NAM appears to phase these features with substantial amplification of kinematic fields downstream. Utilizing guidance consensus, the dominant severe-weather potential will likely emanate downstream of the morning MCS and remnant MCV evolution. Enhanced mid-level westerlies should be present atop rich low-level moisture across the TN Valley and interior Deep South. Ample buoyancy should diurnally develop south and east of the primary MCS outflow, as well as pre-existing outflows from extensive D2 convection. Scattered damaging wind swaths seem probable through the afternoon into early evening. Confidence lessens with both southern extent as westerlies weaken towards the Gulf Coast and northern extent from the Mid-MS Valley to central Appalachians where instability is expected to be weaker. ....Eastern Dakotas to northwest MN... Amplification of a large-scale trough is expected from the southern Prairie Provinces into the Dakotas/MN by early Sunday. An attendant surface trough/developing cold front should reach the Red River Valley to eastern Dakotas by late afternoon Saturday. Buoyancy will remain weak ahead of this boundary amid modest mid-level lapse rates and boundary-layer moisture. But strengthening low/mid-level flow behind and impinging on the front may support a corridor of strong to localized severe gusts with lower-topped convection during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Grams.. 06/05/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .