Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jun 04 2025 19:24:37 ACUS03 KWNS 041924 SWODY3 SPC AC 041923 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern High Plains to the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys on Friday into Friday night. ....Synopsis... Mostly zonal flow will be present east of the Rockies on Friday with a belt of moderate mid-level flow extending from eastern Colorado/New Mexico to the southern Appalachians. Moderate to strong instability is expected across much of this zone which will result in broad corridor with favorable conditions for severe thunderstorms. ....Ozarks to the southern Appalachians... A large MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period in the Oklahoma region. This MCS should weaken through the morning with a remnant MCV likely to advance east through the day. Moderate to strong destabilization is forecast ahead of this MCV with scattered storm development expected within a zone of relatively weak (~25 knots) deep-layer shear. This will mostly support multicell storms capable of damaging wind gusts. Closer to the MCV, where enhanced mid-level flow will likely be present, more organized storms are possible with a locally greater severe weather threat. ....Southern Plains/High Plains... The D3 period bears uncanny resemblance to the D2 period with outflow across the southern High Plains and expectation for an additional MCS developing from the central High Plains and tracking east on Friday night. An MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across Oklahoma. Outflow from this MCS will likely move south/west into northwest Texas and into the Texas Panhandle. Significant destabilization/recovery is forecast along and south of this outflow boundary Friday afternoon/evening. Storms will likely develop along the dryline with a greatest coverage near the outflow boundary interaction. Moderate deep-layer shear will support supercells capable of 2+ inch hail. A few tornadoes are also possible near this outflow boundary, where low-level shear will be maximized. Thunderstorms are also forecast to develop across southeast Colorado into the Oklahoma Panhandle Friday afternoon/evening. Moderate to strong instability will likely be present across Oklahoma into the overnight period. This should sustain storms as they move east. Most guidance shows a strengthening low-level jet and increasing isentropic ascent through the evening which should further favor a MCS to develop and move across portions of Oklahoma during the late evening/overnight period with a threat for severe wind gusts. ...Bentley.. 06/04/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .