Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1111
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 04 2025 18:35:37

ACUS11 KWNS 041835
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041835=20
TXZ000-041930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1111
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025

Areas affected...East central and northeast Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 041835Z - 041930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong storms with isolated wind damage potential
will be possible, but a watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Visible imagery and modified forecast soundings suggest
that convective initiation is underway along and just ahead of a
slow-moving cold front across east central and northeast TX.=20
Surface temperatures are warming into the low-mid 80s F with
dewpoints in the low-mid 70s, with MLCAPE of 2000 J/kg or greater.=20
Though effective bulk shear suggests some potential for organized
storms, almost all of the stronger flow is above 6 km AGL, with very
small hodographs below 6 km.  The relatively weak low-midlevel
vertical shear and warm midlevel temperatures will limit the
potential for large hail, leaving isolated downbursts as the primary
concern.  Overall storm intensity and duration appear insufficient
to warrant a watch.

...Thompson/Smith.. 06/04/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8c8TX3YWKD4Eif28clWfBc7mUNygDx3SVAaxlNZWkrbXGocyUex2XHDRl5mxl-PxGXrUyDVvI=
Jnp6NE32LNcUppwCeA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   32299435 31389476 30609563 30299646 30589675 30969646
            32479538 33559502 33709481 33569451 33319422 32299435=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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