Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1110
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 04 2025 18:12:08

ACUS11 KWNS 041812
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041811=20
NMZ000-042045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1110
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 PM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025

Areas affected...Parts of northwest/north-central New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 041811Z - 042045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated instances of large hail and locally severe winds
gusts may accompany east-northeastward-spreading thunderstorms
through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms are evolving
east-northeastward over west-central NM this afternoon -- within a
steepening low-level lapse rate plume preceding the midlevel
shortwave trough over AZ. Continued diurnal heating of recycled
boundary-layer moisture (lower 50s dewpoints) beneath steepening
midlevel lapse rates should support a modest uptick in convective
intensity over the next few hours. Given a long/straight hodograph
(characterized by around 40 kt of effective shear), a couple loosely
organized clusters and transient supercell structures will be
capable of producing isolated large hail and locally severe gusts.=20

Current thinking is that the severe risk will remain too isolated
for a watch, though an uptick in convective intensity is possible
farther east into east-central NM and eventually the TX Panhandle
later this afternoon into the evening.

...Weinman/Smith.. 06/04/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_gNx2Vur6ZIKfy4-7ttETrxv_AJoStDRlvmcE2RxLufXtBM9MaCv_vIAymkFzLWgj1Bnu18b6=
37rdJy5Vi3YX1k89s8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...

LAT...LON   34110729 34350842 34610876 35140887 36010859 36350824
            36540765 36590665 36410592 36030557 35620553 34600566
            34140609 34110729=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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