Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 04 2025 16:48:40

AWUS01 KWNH 041648
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-042247-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0362
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1247 PM EDT Wed Jun 04 2025

Areas affected...in and near southern Missouri & southwest
Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041647Z - 042247Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to redevelop in
and near southern Missouri.  Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with
local amounts to 5" are possible, which would be problematic.=20
Scattered areas of flash flooding are anticipated over partially
saturated/compromised soils.

Discussion...A wavy cold front stretches across the Great Lakes,
Midwest, and southern Plains on the southeast flank of a longwave
trough.  Renewed shower and thunderstorm development has recently
occurred across southwest MO, while other activity moves from
southeast MO into southwest IL.  Precipitable water values are
~1.8", ML CAPE is 500-2000 J/kg, and effective bulk shear is 25-35
kts.  The degree of effective bulk shear combined with fairly
unidirectional flow with height out of the southwest have
occasionally organized linear southwest-northeast bands near the
front.

The front is expected to slow down with time, which potentially
increases the heavy rainfall/flash flood threat.  The expectation
is for increased convective coverage with time, though the
mesoscale guidance isn't completely united in their vision as to
where it would occur.  The best overlap for heavy rainfall is
across southern MO, where instability is greatest and where dew
points are closest to 70F.  However, places farther northeast in
IL are experiencing an ongoing round of convection that could
receive a second round in several hours.  Northwest portions of
the discussion area have received 1-4" of rain over the past 24
hours, partially saturating soils.  Hourly rain amounts up to 2.5"
and local totals up to 5" are possible where cells train, merge,
or an random mesocyclone develops.

Roth

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4Y1VkfMQq3O3CbaTXrcJ9Eieyg52X0u5yduzCcAtYQYynDA2sVamT7MGRAcce77ChwPk=
Z3eYWcoepQDhKwVcFz6upcg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...LZK...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   40388960 39398851 38128917 36509119 36019421=20
            36519485 37979269=20

=3D =3D =3D
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