Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 04 2025 09:48:08

AWUS01 KWNH 040948
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-041345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0358
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
547 AM EDT Wed Jun 04 2025

Areas affected...southwestern MO into adjacent portions of OK/AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040945Z - 041345Z

SUMMARY...Localized SW to NE training may result in an isolated
area or two of flash flooding in southwestern MO and perhaps
adjacent portions of OK/AR through 14Z. Rainfall rates of 1-2
in/hr are expected.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery at 0930Z showed a SW to NE axis of
showers extending from Ottawa County in northeastern OK to Jasper
County in southwestern MO. Local Wunderground observations just
south of Joplin have indicated about 1 inch of rain in 30 minutes
and generally peak totals of 1 to 2 inches. The storms were
developing along a quasi-stationary front ahead of a subtle
vorticity max over northeastern OK, as observed on 6.9 micron
imagery from GOES East.

09Z SPC mesoanalysis showed that the environment over southwestern
MO had weak instability (< 500 J/kg MLCAPE) but contained high
moisture with PWs between 1.7 and 1.8 inches. SSW low level flow
and mean steering flow into the frontal boundary will continue to
promote localized areas of SW to NE training over the next 1-3
hours, but instability will remain weak. Additional development of
showers could occur to the south, ahead of a surface low near MKO.
SW to NE training but with a gradual eastward translation to the
heavy rainfall axis is expected. This may result in localized
flash flooding, especially if overlap occurs with recent heavy
rain that fell near and north of I-44.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-ZU4yjHmnAfhNyUvRu1yO5x-zQC9YgGCrcvda0cJfHdEWYUB4x42iqGiZdObBKV-X5ho=
n9E4UDqaA_I9hEhRHNN3vGI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   38369286 38129220 37489249 36099389 35669447=20
            35669478 36189526 36839504 37849372=20

=3D =3D =3D
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