Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jun 04 2025 08:04:08 AWUS01 KWNH 040803 FFGMPD TXZ000-041330- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0357 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 402 AM EDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Areas affected...TX Hill Country to I-35 corridor Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 040800Z - 041330Z SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding will be possible through 13Z across portions of central TX. Heavy rainfall with potential for 1-3 inches in an hour but also sub-hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches in 30 minutes will be possible. These rates may impact the sensitive terrain of the Hill Country where locally heavy rain has fallen over the past week and possibly the I-35 corridor from near Temple to San Antonio. DISCUSSION...0730Z radar imagery showed a largely linear axis of thunderstorms extending WSW from McLennan County to southern McCulloch County. These storms were occurring along an outflow boundary and cold front advancing southward with some recent development toward the west, just south of San Angelo. The line has been mostly progressive over the past 3 hours but MRMS and gauge reports have indicated peak rainfall rates of 1.0 to 2.5 inches in an hour and 1.0 to 1.5 inches in 15 minutes (vicinity of Goldthwaite and San Saba). Anomalous moisture of 1.5 to 2.0+ inches along with 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE were helping to fuel the high rates beneath a diffluent flow pattern in the upper levels. The cold front and outflow will both continue to sag southward through about 13Z across the Hill Country, at which point some slowing or stalling is forecast by short term guidance. The line of thunderstorms is expected to follow the boundary southward with some continued development toward the west as convective inhibition weakens due to low level moisture transport from the south. Meanwhile, possible weakening of rainfall intensity may occur to the east near I-35, given better orthogonal low level flow into the boundary will be in place for points west over the Hill Country and some recent warming of cloud tops has been observed over east-central TX. Locally high rainfall rates will continue at least an isolated flash flood threat across the Hill Country into the I-35 corridor through 14Z. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_anYHDsS_zWnwCd75Le8XZQNmkUKgJbsylSlSYD08du-gQZOld_acV83etyERhLecoEN= PZDUVFU67xosaM71UvC0Q6s$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT... ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC... LAT...LON 31519757 31159714 30579712 29809753 29189851=20 29129969 29240052 29830105 30600119 31170085=20 31129957 31199896 31409840=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .