Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jun 04 2025 07:31:04 ACUS03 KWNS 040731 SWODY3 SPC AC 040730 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern High Plains to the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys on Friday into Friday night. ....Southern High Plains to the TN/Lower OH Valleys... Enhanced zonal mid-level flow within the southern stream will overlap a richly moist and unstable air mass across the southern Great Plains to the TN Valley on Friday. An MCS is expected to be initially ongoing in the OK vicinity at 12Z Friday. Guidance generally suggests that the remnant MCV will track east-northeast across the Mid-South and OH Valley through the period. This should enhance 700-mb winds and support scattered damaging wind swaths downstream through at least Friday evening. Have broadened the 15 percent severe area eastward through much of KY south to northern AL/GA, with still much uncertainty on how far south/east remnant MCS outflow(s) will reach. Farther west across the southern High Plains to OK vicinity, the overall setup from the convective-parameterized guidance appears conditionally more favorable relative to D2. A broader plume of large buoyancy is progged across OK/TX by Friday afternoon. In addition, a northern-stream shortwave impulse is progged to dig into the central Great Plains by Friday evening/night. This would further enhance the belt of mid/upper-level westerlies to its south. A similar evolution of supercells developing off the Raton Mesa vicinity and growing upscale into a nocturnal MCS seems plausible. The primary limiting factor to a categorical upgrade is with the potential impact of the late D2/early D3 MCS on instability and southern extent of convective outflows, which parameterized guidance are notoriously underdone with. In addition, there is potential for that MCS to be more intense/widespread than currently forecast. For now, have opted to maintain a level 2-SLGT, with potential for upgrades in later outlooks as limiting impacts of the early-period MCS are likely better resolved. ...Grams.. 06/04/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .