Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1106
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 04 2025 03:34:06

ACUS11 KWNS 040332
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040332=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-040530-

Mesoscale Discussion 1106
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1032 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025

Areas affected...East-central MO into a small part of western IL

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361...

Valid 040332Z - 040530Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361
continues.

SUMMARY...A localized severe threat may continue eastward late
tonight.

DISCUSSION...A small storm cluster with embedded bowing segments is
moving across east-central MO late this evening. This cluster has a
history of sporadic wind-damage reports, though recent trends
suggest some weakening. While wind profiles remain favorable for
organized convection, weak downstream buoyancy results in
uncertainty regarding the magnitude and longevity of the severe
threat as this cluster moves eastward. However, locally damaging
gusts remain possible, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out given
favorable low-level shear/SRH and the presence of an outflow
boundary draped across the region.=20

Short-term trends will continue to be monitored regarding the need
for local extension/expansion of WW 361.

...Dean/Hart.. 06/04/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!83inswdLG50bOmXl3uSahyGS4NmQdDReeV7LMU2zFwcg-gfw2yuCj_9yrt_47js8mLTmLQuBj=
PGH74XXJguov6o1xOM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   39169203 39509086 39689006 39468977 38968965 38698979
            38379005 38239081 38249126 38359188 39169203=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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