Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 04 2025 01:04:37

AWUS01 KWNH 040104
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-040703-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0355
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
904 PM EDT Tue Jun 03 2025

Areas affected...southern/central Missouri, far northwest Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040103Z - 040703Z

Summary...A couple of progressive linear convective complexes will
sweep through the region this evening, prompting occasional areas
of 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates on an isolated basis.  These rates
could result in a few areas of flash flooding - especially in
typical sensitive/low-lying areas of the Missouri Ozarks.

Discussion...Earlier convection across Kansas/northern Missouri
has evolved into a couple of extensive linear segments - one
extending from near Quincy, IL to near Sedalia, MO that intersects
with a separate linear MCS across west-central Missouri through
Joplin and Tulsa, OK.  These linear complexes have become much
more progressive compared to their earlier evolution, with 25-35
kt storm motions generally limiting hourly rain rates to 1-1.5
inch/hr in spots.  Despite the downward trend in rain rates, some
opportunity remains for training/repeating cells across central
Missouri (near the intersection of the two linear complexes
around/south of the Columbia area) and across far northeastern
Oklahoma (where 1-1.75 inch/hr rain rates are more prevalent east
of Bartlesville).  The overall regime appears to be shifting
eastward toward the Missouri Ozarks and vicinity, with terrain
supporting occasional flash flood potential in low/sensitive
spots.  The downstream environment contains 1.5-1.9 inch PW values
and 1500 J/kg MLCAPE - both supportive of efficient rain rates
(occasionally exceeding 1 inch/hr) as storms move east.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8ByYPXRRSnfu_c27lD6bbhETAsPNodNoEP8VX-dTTFh0SNM7ZVnOGQk4D1V_s2HoWVhK=
NmLH0YAw_jT6EEoROqKgEMg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...LZK...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   39699213 39499106 39019056 38299066 37149094=20
            36359235 35839359 35929478 36479513 37209457=20
            38359388 39249298=20

=3D =3D =3D
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