Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 04 2025 00:49:32

ACUS01 KWNS 040049
SWODY1
SPC AC 040048

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible from the southern
Great Plains to the Midwest.

....01z Update...

Low-amplitude short-wave trough is ejecting across eastern KS/OK
into extreme northern TX. A considerable amount of convection has
evolved ahead of this feature, just ahead of the synoptic front this
is now surging southeast across southeast KS-central OK-TX south
Plains. Complex storm modes are noted along the corridor of pre
frontal convection, with a mix of a few supercells, clusters, and
bowing line segments. Seasonally strong instability has yet to be
overturned ahead of this activity with 2000-3000 J/kg SBCAPE
extending as far northeast as the MO Ozarks. 00z sounding from SGF
supports this with 2600 J/kg SBCAPE and 0-6km bulk shear around
30kt. Additionally, lapse rates are not that steep and CINH is
negligible, so widespread convection should spread east and
southeast ahead of this boundary through this evening.

Buoyancy is quite a bit weaker across northern IL into southern WI,
but an organized QLCS is propagating northeast into this region. DVN
sounding exhibits around 40kt 0-6km shear, so this activity is
expected to remain organized for the next several hours despite the
poor lapse rates and modest instability.

...Darrow.. 06/04/2025

$$

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