Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jun 04 2025 00:38:01 AWUS01 KWNH 040037 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-040636- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0354 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 837 PM EDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Areas affected...southern/southeastern Oklahoma through north and central Texas Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 040036Z - 040636Z Summary...Isolated flash flood potential should continue with scattered thunderstorm activity migrating southeastward across the discussion area through the night (06Z/1am CDT). Occasional instances of 2+ inch/hr rain rates are likely where cell mergers and training are observed. Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms have evolved into a series of clusters/loosely organized supercellular structures and linear segments extending from near Tulsa south-southwestward through Ada and southeast of Wichita Falls. Storms across northeastern Oklahoma have grown upscale and become quite progressive, with rain rates limited to around 1 inch/hr. Isolated flash flooding is possible in sensitive/low-lying areas in this regime. Farther southwest, clusters have exhibited less linear structure and have occasionally merged/backbuilt - prolonging heavy rain rates in local areas. Spots of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates were being estimated per MRMS near/southwest of Ada and also south of Wichita Falls. These rain rates were occurring in areas of 2-3.5 inch/hr FFG thresholds - highest with southward and southeastward extent.=20 With already spotty/isolated coverage of the heavier rain rates moving into areas of slightly higher FFG, current thinking is that the ongoing flash flood risk should remain isolated and localized to sensitive/urban areas through the evening. CAMs/high-res guidance depict a potential focus for backbuilding/heavier rain rates across portions of north and west-central Texas through the overnight hours in tandem with a southward-moving synoptic front over the southern High Plains. The risk of 2+ inch/hr rain rates should persist through the night in this regime - potentially impacting areas near Dallas/Fort Worth, Waco, and perhaps Austin later tonight. Cook ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5XCku1DX0nLi8_CAqYvy7nZKF7QUmsJGQneAkIeh1Gbn5dkU2JLKqvI7ucQ9XG5RCWd9= fHf6U5wJBtMI-FKopVUS8qs$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA... ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 36579567 36289476 34829450 33319449 31859549=20 31009631 30619754 30619894 31270027 32409953=20 33519873 34589772 35479682 36369610=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .