Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1099
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 03 2025 23:16:27

ACUS11 KWNS 032315
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032314=20
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-040045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1099
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0614 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025

Areas affected...Parts of eastern IA...northeast MO...western IL

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361...

Valid 032314Z - 040045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind and possibly a tornado will
spread northeastward this evening.

DISCUSSION...A QLCS has evolved across southeast IA into northeast
MO, and will continue spreading northeastward into a moist and
moderately unstable environment. A small bowing segment has evolved
within the northern portion of the QLCS across southeast IA, where
the orientation of the line has become more orthogonal to the
deep-layer shear vectors. This section of the line may pose a
locally greater threat of damaging wind through early evening as it
moves into northwest IL. Low-level shear (as depicted on the KDVN
VWP) is also sufficient to support some potential for a
line-embedded tornado.=20

Farther south, the environment remains favorable along the southern
portion of the QLCS, and a threat for damaging wind and possibly a
brief tornado will eventually spread into west-central IL. Isolated
hail will also be possible with the stronger embedded cells.

...Dean.. 06/03/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9xj9q78MR7u5873V1cv3a9pYml1ajkKf68YDadIOBRLnxCIzI1ikQoGxcmnlmOQxgQBonjhPl=
dwM-rJ34m-DLU8y9qA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON   41109205 42209067 42348976 42328947 42108928 41528923
            40328994 39439066 39039179 39639181 40069174 40649166
            41109205=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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