Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jun 03 2025 18:37:30 AWUS01 KWNH 031837 FFGMPD MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-040035- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0351 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 236 PM EDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Areas affected...Central and Northern OK...Southern and Eastern KS...Central to Northeast MO Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 031835Z - 040035Z SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms with additional areas of flash flooding will continue into the evening hours across southern/eastern KS and into western/northern MO. Gradually this threat will settle down into central and northern OK. Given the high rainfall rates and localized persistence of the stronger storms, areas of significant and life-threatening flash flooding are expected. DISCUSSION...The midday GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a southwest to northeast axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms impacting areas of south-central to northeast KS along with some adjacent areas of northwest MO. The activity continues to be aided by the persistence of a convergent moist/unstable low-level jet of 30 to 40+ kts out ahead of a cold front. Relatively stronger mid-level forcing associated with an ejecting shortwave trough is interacting with MLCAPE values of as much as 1500 to 2500 J/kg and PWs of 1.75+ inches, and this has been resulting in a substantial amount of organization and persistence of convection over the last few hours. Already there has been locally considerable flash flooding impacting areas around Wichita and Emporia, and some rainfall totals locally since mid-morning of 5 to 7+ inches. Additional expansion of showers and thunderstorms are expected over the next few hours which will extend northeastward into more areas of western and northern MO to the southeast of a cold front. However, there will also be the development and organization of convection deep into the unstable warm sector involving central and northern OK where recent visible satellite trends indicate an increasingly agitated CU/TCU field. LightningCast data shows convection is imminent across these areas. Rainfall rates with the stronger storms heading into the evening hours will be capable of reaching 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour, and some additional rainfall totals of as much as 3 to 6+ inches will be possible which is consistent with the latest HREF/REFS guidance and the HRRR solutions. Areas of flash flooding will continue, with a general increase in the coverage of flash flooding expected over the next several hours. Multiple major metropolitan areas will continue to be at risk for seeing significant and life-threatening flash flooding. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-IAtjdWX4eJsMKO7JkRhRYe1Kgdu9_47k1LAU0g1-gm8g9kvqyBJXZ4n_4lCdSVSdXic= 4dq1D4q7T7gkDd4t8jcjQ5I$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...EAX...ICT...LSX...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA... ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 40379254 40109173 39399143 38459215 37309439=20 35519679 35339838 36099884 37629783 38919648=20 39789501 40169397=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .