Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1091
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 03 2025 18:33:33

ACUS11 KWNS 031832
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031832=20
MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-032030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1091
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025

Areas affected...portions of WI into Upper MI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 031832Z - 032030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Locally strong gusts to 50 mph, and small hail will be
possible through the afternoon. Overall severe potential is expected
to remain limited and a watch is not currently expected.

DISCUSSION...A band of storms is currently moving across northern IL
into southeast WI within a warm advection regime. A 30-40 kt 850 mb
low-level jet is aiding in some storm organization. Isolated strong
gusts will be possible with ongoing and developing convection.
Temperatures have warmed into the low 80s across much of eastern WI
with low 60s dewpoints, supporting modest instability. Given strong
deep-layer flow and areas of steepened low-level lapse rates,
locally strong gusts are possible (and a 44 kt gust was noted about
30 minutes ago at KRFD). Temperatures aloft are marginal for hail
production, with around -8 to -10 C at 500 mb is noted in forecast
soundings. Nevertheless, sufficient instability and elongated
hodographs suggest some small hail could accompany stronger cores.
Overall severe potential is expected to remain limited, and a watch
is not expected at this time.

...Leitman/Smith.. 06/03/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_FyrK8RPopgs0Hh5XZWN7FAWtAVlPDygAQDZ3zandYJdUTxB1vW49OvkWjw3KmwmGdq7i13N_=
OqvTypWD_RKag8dOJQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...LOT...MKX...ARX...

LAT...LON   44169056 45328964 46038830 46538702 46478620 46128609
            44918683 43338739 42268783 42198848 42298898 42678938
            43339006 43739049 44169056=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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