Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jun 03 2025 13:53:14 AWUS01 KWNH 031351 FFGMPD MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-031900- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0350 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 951 AM EDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Areas affected...Southern and Eastern KS...West-Central MO Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 031350Z - 031900Z SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will likely become more concentrated over the next several hours across portions of southern and eastern KS into west-central MO. Backbuilding and locally training convection will favor the potential for enhanced rainfall totals and thus concerns for scattered areas of flash flooding. DISCUSSION...The morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a corridor of heavy showers and thunderstorms with cold convective tops impacting areas of eastern KS, with the activity beginning to move into areas of west-central MO. The activity is being sustained by a southwest low-level jet of 30 to 40+ kts out ahead of a cold front, and with the pooling of a favorably moist and unstable airmass. The ejection of a mid-level trough with favorably divergent flow aloft over the region is also a key player with the ongoing convective threat. PWs of near 1.75 inches are in place which are about 2 standard deviations above normal, and an instability axis is nosed up across eastern KS with MUCAPE values of as high as 1500 to 2000 J/kg. Relatively strong low-level moisture convergence is noted, and the early-morning visible satellite imagery shows an expanding CU/TCU field down to the southwest of the current activity involving areas of south-central to southeast KS. Over the next few hours, there is likely to be the renewed development and expansion of convection across eastern KS and into west-central MO, with activity also likely developing down to the southwest into areas of south-central to southeast KS. This is consistent with the latest HRRR forecasts and also the 06Z HREF guidance which strongly support rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour, with an environment conducive for backbuilding and locally training convective cells. Some rainfall totals through early this afternoon may reach 2 to 4 inches with isolated heavier amounts possible where cell-training is maximized. The persistence of these rains may foster some scattered areas of flash flooding which will include a threat for some urban impacts. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-wy9XlcHr2u5PWNjH8QduHIXBb-7hRYkgLTpTPbO1QDZgMgNDRhpvVbfbdR9AB8iPmpE= 4PrsHEsp_6YfexdvoHSGp1A$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...OUN...SGF...TOP... ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 39589338 38789297 38159397 37259619 36959759=20 37249852 38189800 39339536=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .