Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jun 03 2025 07:30:54 ACUS03 KWNS 030730 SWODY3 SPC AC 030729 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS THE OZARK PLATEAU... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the Ozark Plateau. ....Southern High Plains to the Ozark Plateau... Multiple rounds of convection are expected during the period, yielding at least a low-probability severe threat throughout. Early-period ejection of the low-amplitude shortwave impulse onto the central High Plains should support a corridor of thunderstorms ongoing near the warm front, likely centered in/around the TX Panhandle at 12Z Thursday. With dampening of this impulse and diurnal weakening of the low-level jet, this activity should diminish by midday/early afternoon, but may pose an isolated large hail and strong gust threat early. In its wake, strong destabilization from increased boundary-layer moisture combined with an expansion of steep mid-level lapse rates should yield an amply unstable airmass across the southern High Plains. How far this extends east in OK towards the Ozarks will be predicated on how the early-day activity evolves. Consensus of guidance suggests large-scale ascent may remain minimal where moderate to large buoyancy develops. Low-level convergence may be lacking along the dryline that remains anchored across far eastern NM. Still, with an enhanced belt of confluent mid-level westerlies, the conditional risk for an intense supercell is apparent. More probable convective development is anticipated off the Raton Mesa vicinity and then into Thursday evening/night as a pronounced low-level jet strengthens from west TX into OK. This should result in scattered to eventually widespread thunderstorms developing along the west/east-oriented warm front across southern KS and northern OK. Given large buoyancy to its south, favorable mid-level westerlies, a forward-propagating MCS capable of both large hail and severe gusts is possible into early morning Friday. ....New England and central/eastern NY... A weak cold front should progress towards the St. Lawrence Valley by Thursday afternoon. Robust boundary-layer heating ahead of it and a moderately moist air mass should support modest buoyancy with MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should peak in coverage/intensity during the afternoon. 25-30 kt effective bulk shear could support a few multicell clusters with isolated damaging winds and small to marginally severe hail. ...Grams.. 06/03/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .