Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1080
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 02 2025 22:00:52

ACUS11 KWNS 022200
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022200=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-022330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1080
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 PM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025

Areas affected...Parts of west/central KS/OK into western north TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 022200Z - 022330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for severe gusts (potentially exceeding 75 mph)
and isolated hail will increase with time into this evening. Watch
issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...Initial high-based convection across the south-central
High Plains has intensified as it encountered richer low-level
moisture and stronger instability across the eastern OK/TX
Panhandles into southwest KS. Deep-layer shear is currently rather
modest, but will gradually increase with time as a mid/upper-level
trough moves eastward toward the region. Strong instability is
already in place downstream of ongoing storms across western/central
OK, and moisture/instability will increase with time this evening
into central KS.

Steep tropospheric lapse rates are quite favorable for severe wind,
with observed severe gusts recently noted across the TX/OK
Panhandles. Some hail potential will also accompany any stronger
embedded cells. The composite outflow is surging quickly eastward
across the central TX/OK Panhandles into far southwest KS, and will
reach areas east of WW 353 and WW 356 by early evening, and
downstream watch issuance is likely.

...Dean/Guyer.. 06/02/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!68QXKoT6zEUXixq1XPAJJdz6nPAycMDNTisP9q9bmWoyS3P2eup5F34SuexeyC-h7a-QVcxJF=
lHcvEIvMM7rNVigccs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   34179999 36509995 38479994 38839959 38939926 39039901
            39439793 39089757 37429742 36029772 34829841 34129933
            34179999=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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