Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1076
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 02 2025 20:22:09

ACUS11 KWNS 022021
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022021=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-022115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1076
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 PM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025

Areas affected...Portions of West Texas and the Trans Pecos into
southeast New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 022021Z - 022115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are possible
this afternoon and into this evening.

DISCUSSION...Moderate instability has developed across the Trans
Pecos and into West Texas with 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Some
convection has formed along the higher terrain from southeast New
Mexico to the Davis Mountains in Texas. A belt of slightly stronger
mid-level flow will overspread this region through the late
afternoon and into the evening, with RAP forecast soundings
indicating 35 to 40 knots of effective shear where southerly or
southeasterly flow remains by 23Z to 00Z. Therefore, a few
supercells are possible with a threat for large hail and severe wind
gusts.=20

Large-scale forcing is mostly moving away from the region, so storm
coverage will likely remain isolated.

...Bentley/Flournoy/Smith.. 06/02/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_jlC8428O-feWCrmzatIfaLUnJVLy_XywOhNvemqhxH68y8LXmlqhXJvRiIXXoaZ2zPZ4DGGs=
yht0VdKi1D27zbcvbY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   29050381 30560407 32200420 32700395 32930317 33050186
            32950094 32230059 30660079 29540111 29610177 29650225
            29530250 29100285 28830310 28870338 29050381=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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