Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jun 02 2025 19:55:23 ACUS01 KWNS 021955 SWODY1 SPC AC 021953 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN KANSAS... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from the Texas Panhandle and northwest Oklahoma into western Kansas. Severe gusts 60-75 mph will be the primary hazard and localized gusts 75-90 mph are possible. ....20 UTC Update... The forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. For a general overview of the severe risk, see the discussion below. ....Minnesota... Convection associated with a pronounced MCV traversing MN has persisted longer than anticipated, and has yielded a few strong/severe wind gusts over the past 1-2 hours. Although downstream buoyancy is limited (SBCAPE between 500-1000 J/kg), a corridor of steep low-level lapse rates exists immediately downstream of the cluster. These low-level thermodynamics should continue to promote a severe wind threat for the next few hours as the MCV migrates northeast towards the MN Arrowhead region. 15% wind probabilities have been expanded downstream to account for this concern in conjunction with recently issued WW #354. ....Southern High Plains... A convective cluster is beginning to organize across western TX and into parts of the TX Panhandle. A pronounced boundary evident in regional radar imagery is propagating due eastward into an increasingly buoyant air mass, which should promote a steady increase in convective coverage through early evening. An 18 UTC AMA sounding sampled very buoyant conditions (SBCAPE of around 3000 J/kg) with a deepening boundary layer. While wind profiles are currently not overly impressive, favorable thermodynamics should promote cold-pool driven storm propagation for the next few hours until mid-level flow increases later tonight and favors increasing organization across the Panhandles, southwest KS, and northwest OK. For additional near-term details see MCD #1075. ....Florida... Persistent convection through early/mid-afternoon has resulted in the development of an expansive cirrus shield across the FL Peninsula with an notable cold pool along the FL west coast. Risk probabilities have been removed to account for these trends, though 20-30 knot mid-level flow sampled by regional VWPs suggests that some severe threat may persist within ongoing convection across the greater Miami, FL area. While remaining daytime heating will be muted under the cirrus canopy, temperatures warming into the 80s coupled with a developing sea breeze along Florida's east coast may support additional convection later this afternoon/early evening (as hinted by recent CAM guidance). ...Moore.. 06/02/2025 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025/ ....Southern High Plains into KS... Visible-satellite imagery shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough over AZ, which is forecast to move east-northeastward into northeast NM this evening and south-central High Plains by daybreak. Farther east, a patch of stratus over the northeast TX Panhandle and western OK is attributable to the northwest periphery of richer low-level moisture (upper 60s surface dewpoints) per late morning analysis. The leading band of large-scale ascent with the Desert Southwest disturbance is progressing eastward across central NM southward into southwest TX, as indicated by mid- to high-level clouds and convection. Strong heating will continue this afternoon ahead of the cloud shield across the southern High Plains into eastern CO/western KS. Very steep 0-3 km lapse rates and moderate to very strong buoyancy (1000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) and eroding convective inhibition, will favor scattered storms developing by mid afternoon on the western part of the moist/unstable sector. Relatively modest mid to high-level flow will favor organized multicells. As storm outflow begins to congeal and as storms move eastward into an increasingly moist airmass (PW rising from 1 inch to 1.5 inches), a propensity for widespread thunderstorms and outflow will peak by early evening. Forecast experience in the combination of PW, buoyancy, sufficient shear for multicells, and high agreement in a linear storm mode, all strongly suggest severe gusts will be the primary hazard. Gusts 60-75 mph will be common with the stronger surges of outflow and localized peak gusts 75-90 mph are possible. Have upgraded to 30-percent significant wind due to confidence in intense outflow. CAMs show this activity spreading east across western and northern OK and into much of central KS before weakening late this evening into the early overnight. ....Central High Plains to MN... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to continue eastward across MT and the northern Plains. A surface cold front from northwest MN southwestward into the central High Plains is forecast to focus thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight. Strong heating is expected ahead of this front, where moderate destabilization will be aided by upper 50s to mid 60s surface dewpoints. Initial thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon across MN where the strongest low-level convergence will be in place. Dewpoints (and overall buoyancy) will be lower here than areas farther southwest, which is expected to limit overall storm strength and contribute to an anafrontal storm character. Farther southwest, isolated storms will probably develop by mid afternoon over southeast WY/NE Panhandle with increasing storm coverage as this activity moves east during the late afternoon/evening. Strong buoyancy will favor robust updrafts, but deep-layer shear will be modest. This weaker shear coupled with linear forcing is expected to result in a quick transition to a predominantly linear mode. As a result, some supercell threat is possible early in the convective evolution but, storm mergers and potential clustering/line segments favor a hail risk transitioning rather quickly to more wind. Some continuation of a severe threat (mainly wind) may persist late into the evening and early overnight across NE, near the terminus of a 45-kt south-southwesterly LLJ. ....South FL... Shortwave trough moving over the central Gulf of America is forecast to continue southeastward into the eastern Gulf, with increasing large-scale ascent downstream across much of the FL Peninsula. Thunderstorm coverage will gradually increase through the mid afternoon with severe/damaging gusts and large hail possible with the stronger cores. This activity will likely weaken by the early evening. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .