Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jun 02 2025 17:33:29 ACUS02 KWNS 021732 SWODY2 SPC AC 021730 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE MID-MS VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to mid-evening Tuesday. A couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur. ....Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel shortwave trough, initially over the central High Plains, will move northeastward into the Mid/Upper MS Valley while becoming absorbed into a broad large-scale trough across the western/central CONUS. A related cold front extending from the Upper Midwest southwestward to a weak lee cyclone over the central High Plains will advance east-southeastward across the MS Valley and southern Plains through the period. This large-scale evolution will result in a belt of moderate-strong midlevel southwesterly flow from the southern Plains to the Upper Midwest, where a broad/strong low-level jet will overlie a moist, destabilizing boundary layer. ....Central Texas to the Ozarks... Modestly enhanced/focused forcing for ascent preceding the southern-stream shortwave trough and weak lee cyclone over the southern/central Plains will support numerous bands of eastward-moving thunderstorms during the afternoon into the evening/overnight hours. While overnight convection and related boundary-layer overturning is expected here, diurnal heating of an increasingly moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints) will still yield moderate surface-based buoyancy. This, combined with 30-40 kt of effective shear, will support a mix of supercell clusters and organized line segments -- capable of producing scattered severe wind gusts, large hail, and possibly a couple embedded tornadoes. While there does appear to be a focused/favorable corridor for swaths of severe wind with upscale-growing convection (especially over the central/southern Plains), early-day storms limit confidence in the overall convective evolution -- precluding an upgrade to 30-percent wind/ENH at this time. ....Mid MS Valley to the Upper Midwest... Increased cloud coverage across the warm/moist sector with northeastern extent will tend to limit instability, especially given poor midlevel lapse rates. Nevertheless, ample boundary-layer moisture and at least pockets of heating will contribute to weak/locally moderate surface-based buoyancy ahead of the cold front. Given 40-50 kt of effective shear amid the strong/broad low-level jet, convective organization into clusters/lines and some supercell structures is expected along/ahead of the cold front. Widely scattered damaging winds will be the primary concern with this activity, though isolated instances of severe hail will also be possible. ...Weinman.. 06/02/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .