Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 02 2025 16:44:55

AWUS01 KWNH 021644
FFGMPD
FLZ000-022242-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0345
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1243 PM EDT Mon Jun 02 2025

Areas affected...portions of southern/southeastern Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 021642Z - 022242Z

Summary...Scattered to numerous thunderstorm activity is expected
to develop through 22Z/6pm EDT this evening. These storms will be
slow-moving, producing enough heavy rainfall in urbanized areas of
southeastern Florida to promote flash flooding in a few areas.

Discussion...Recent radar/satellite depicts deepening convective
cores along the I-95 corridor from Fort Lauderdale to Homestead,
FL currently.  Additional storms were observed just south of the
Florida Keys and near the Fort Myers area.  These cells were
developing in a strongly unstable environment (2000+ J/kg MLCAPE)
with abundant moisture (2 inch PW values) supporting efficient
rain rates as storms continue to strengthen/mature.  Additionally,
weak/modest wind fields aloft were contributing to slow and
erratic storm motions across the region.

As cells mature/deepen, a combination of mergers and erratic
motions will eventually allow for 1-2 inch/hr rain rates to
develop in a few spots across the urban south Florida I-95
corridor.  This corridor is sensitive to heavy rainfall and a few
areas of urban flash flooding are expected.  Rainfall totals
exceeding 2 inches are also likely in much of the discussion area
through 22Z/6pm EDT this evening, with spotty/isolated flash
flooding expected elsewhere across the discussion area.

Over time, mid-level flow may increase some ahead of an advancing
mid-level wave over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.  While the
resultant increase in shear could aid in a gradual increase in
storm organization initially across southwestern Florida and
vicinity, this evolution will likely not reduce the flash flood
risk across the southern part of the state.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9VfOqdIXtFjAB9aF7tNj0WStYog0ToZ6NgEfAz1JR6cRBnWtTwpL9n6iVm9_pPwvqov-=
8_o8-ZOS3zWtgmqtWWHeH7E$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   27418138 27268040 26967991 25907998 24998041=20
            24548153 24618205 25148164 25638162 26298199=20
            26688210 26988209=20

=3D =3D =3D
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