Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1071
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 02 2025 15:31:19

ACUS11 KWNS 021531
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021530=20
FLZ000-021700-

Mesoscale Discussion 1071
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025

Areas affected...South Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 021530Z - 021700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to isolated severe storms are possible late this
morning and into the afternoon across South Florida.

DISCUSSION...Moderate instability has developed across South Florida
south of an upper-level cirrus plume. The TBW VWP shows around 25
knots of 0-6 km shear with slightly stronger 0-8 km shear around 30
knots. In addition, the 12Z MFL RAOB showed similar shear magnitudes
indicating relatively consistent shear magnitude across the southern
Florida Peninsula. This shear may be sufficient for some storm
organization including transient rotating updrafts. A relatively
warm/moist profile will likely limit the hail threat. However, large
hail could be possible with any more organized cells. This is more
likely along the east coast where the sea-breeze may locally enhance
deep-layer shear and low-level convergence. Otherwise, moist,
water-loaded downdrafts could produce locally damaging wind gusts.
Due to the the expectation for isolated severe potential, a watch is
not anticipated.

...Bentley/Smith.. 06/02/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4pUjMcG9dzNHYbHRDcAKDiW_NSAVoh87WVps5PzLymGGaDRjWLtDIg3P4DQd2zGiBffk4b2mC=
lTHMNNf1nT1Crc0AJ8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...

LAT...LON   26658229 26918186 27228042 27178006 26917991 26167992
            25688002 25428012 25118050 25078094 25168116 25408127
            25608136 25728152 25798165 25848174 26168196 26338197
            26438207 26558228 26658229=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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