Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 02 2025 08:41:18

ACUS48 KWNS 020841
SWOD48
SPC AC 020839

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Latest guidance has trended towards a climatologically active
extended period for severe potential. It appears that 15 percent
severe areas will likely be delineated each day within a persistent
split-flow regime. Belts of enhanced mid-level westerlies should
accompany the train of low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave
impulses. Meanwhile, above-average agreement exists with the
amplification of a large-scale trough into the north-central states
towards the end of the period. This would suppress the southern
stream southward in the southern Great Plains to Deep South.

Reliably timing individual low-amplitude impulses/MCVs can be
difficult in this setup. But it appears that the initial impulse
ejecting across the southern Rockies around 12Z Thursday should
serve to focus severe potential from the TX Panhandle into southern
KS on D4. This feature may continue eastward towards the Mid-MS
Valley/eastern Midwest on D5/Friday. But with probable weak
mid-level lapse rates downstream and lack of run-to-run continuity
across guidance, will defer on a 15 percent area highlight.

...Grams.. 06/02/2025

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