Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1060
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 01 2025 12:06:08

ACUS11 KWNS 011206
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011205=20
FLZ000-011400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1060
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0705 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025

Areas affected...South-central Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 011205Z - 011400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated tornado threat may continue for the next two
to three hours across south-central Florida. The threat is expected
to remain localized, and weather watch issuance appears unlikely,
although trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...An east-to-west band of strong thunderstorms is ongoing
across south-central Florida, along a zone of somewhat focused
low-level convergence. The storms are being supported by a shortwave
trough that is moving through the eastern Gulf. A mid-level jet
streak is analyzed by the RAP from the eastern Gulf extending
eastward across the Florida Peninsula. This jet has strengthened
deep-layer shear over south-central Florida into the 40 to 50 knot
range, according to the RAP. This will support isolated supercell
development this morning. Although RAP forecast soundings across
south-central Florida suggest that low-level shear is not
particularly strong, storm-relative helicity could be locally higher
near the zone of low-level convergence. As a result, transient
supercells could be capable of producing low to mid-level rotation,
with a brief tornado possible. Marginally severe wind gusts could
also occur. The threat should remain localized, and watch issuance
is currently not expected.

...Broyles/Bunting.. 06/01/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5jpXECg6mDcPq470UZYSPs4obtxAZTh5zIiWuce-CyCmdHcduG17dUJrQ-0CE1IQZFeDfI-Sv=
LZ7qukWRPGJAeTMskg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON   26778042 26618143 26708180 26928189 27158176 27248149
            27408071 27388023 27148010 26918011 26778042=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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