Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 01 2025 08:33:36

ACUS48 KWNS 010832
SWOD48
SPC AC 010830

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Enhanced mid-level southwesterlies initially present over the
central Great Lakes early Wednesday should become confined to ON/QC
as a lower-amplitude shortwave trough dampens. Trailing to the south
of this, low-probability severe is apparent on Wednesday afternoon
in the eastern Midwest, and on Thursday afternoon over the Northeast
along/ahead of a decaying cold front.

Another southern-stream shortwave impulse is progged to move east
from the Southwest mid-week. But initial surface ridging downstream
over the southern High Plains suggests the potential severe area
will be limited. Greater potential may await D6-7/Friday-Saturday,
as the ridging breaks down and zonal mid-level flow returns in the
wake of the aforementioned impulse. This will yield strengthening
and expansion of the EML east of the CO Plateau. ML guidance from
both the latest 00Z SPC/NSSL GEFS and yesterday's 00Z NCAR ECENS
highlight 15 percent probabilities on D6-7/Friday-Saturday across
the TX Panhandle into western KS/OK. Potential MCVs embedded within
this regime appear too minor at this time frame to reliably
delineate an area, but bear watching for shorter-term outlooks.

...Grams.. 06/01/2025

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.