Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1056
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat May 31 2025 20:04:34

ACUS11 KWNS 312004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312004=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-312200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1056
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0304 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025

Areas affected...Parts of eastern North Carolina and southeastern
Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 312004Z - 312200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple locally damaging wind gusts may accompany
eastward-moving thunderstorms this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually deepening in the left exit
region of a west-northwesterly midlevel jet across parts of northern
NC. This activity will continue spreading eastward across eastern NC
and southeastern VA this afternoon, where steepened low/midlevel
lapse rates and a long/straight hodograph (40-50 kt of effective
shear) could support a couple small, briefly organized storm
clusters. Locally damaging wind gusts may accompany any stronger
storms that can evolve, though weak instability and a lack of
focused mesoscale ascent should limit the overall severe risk.

...Weinman/Hart.. 05/31/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!49COh9lfdyzTqVWBOQfNpn8ZkdPRYYy7lrGYsXXFDyx0mFpYDrbRBxDzJJR0lFe-IskZJO_mB=
ltrP0zXzO3N9SE1SH8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...

LAT...LON   35237545 34647636 34607748 35107862 35507891 36177888
            36517874 36747847 37017803 37117744 36977605 36747580
            35747539 35237545=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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