Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1053
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat May 31 2025 14:31:51

ACUS11 KWNS 311431
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311430=20
FLZ000-311700-

Mesoscale Discussion 1053
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0930 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025

Areas affected...Parts of South Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 311430Z - 311700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple strong to locally damaging wind gusts may
accompany thunderstorms as they spread/develop east-southeastward
across South FL through mid afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Morning surface analysis shows an ENE/WSW-oriented cold
front moving slowly southward toward Lake Okeechobee in South FL.
Thunderstorms are ongoing along/north of the front, with additional
development south of the front within broadly confluent (albeit
veered) low-level flow. Despite poor midlevel lapse rates, diurnal
heating of a moist air mass (beneath high-level clouds) is
contributing to moderate surface-based instability ahead of storms.
This, combined with around 35 kt of unidirectional 0-6 km shear,
will favor a couple loosely organized thunderstorm clusters (both
along and ahead of the front) -- capable of producing strong to
locally damaging winds gusts. The overall severe threat is expected
to remain too marginal/localized for a watch.

...Weinman/Hart.. 05/31/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5FLUzLjVSFSjWYTGWbMCBrhz_DoqkqarbrbCW4SRYrSRORdhxft5b87TgUheiSEXMUkkkyPq5=
Dcv4Pq9xOucoMLR2Is$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON   26718208 27388087 27518051 27538032 27298011 26697995
            26068006 25938025 25908116 26088178 26548211 26718208=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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