Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat May 31 2025 07:30:32 ACUS03 KWNS 310730 SWODY3 SPC AC 310729 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SD TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern South Dakota to the central High Plains from late afternoon to evening Monday. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broader portion of the central states from Minnesota to the Texas Panhandle. ....Central States... A split-flow regime on Monday will be characterized by a northern-stream shortwave trough moving east from the northern Rockies along the international border over the northern Great Plains, and a low-amplitude southern-stream trough ejecting across the Southwest into the central High Plains. Most guidance, outside of the 00Z GFS, has trended farther southeast with a surface cold front that will sweep across the northern Great Plains late D2 in response to a leading shortwave impulse and surface cyclone, with the latter tracking east over northern ON on Monday. Guidance consensus suggests the cold front should reach northern MN to the central High Plains by late afternoon Monday. The belt of strong mid-level flow attendant to the primary northern-stream trough will lag behind the surface front, but may eventually overspread the MN portion of the front towards early evening. Moderate to large buoyancy will likely be displaced well south from the Red River Valley of the South north-northwest into NE. The front will serve as the primary focus for severe potential during the late afternoon and evening where a mix of scattered severe hail/wind is possible. Most persistent/widespread storm development is anticipated near the NE portion of the boundary as the low-level jet strengthens in the evening. Convective coverage with southern extent is more nebulous, especially beyond peak heating. Overall, generally modest deep-layer shear, with weakness in much of the hodograph above the boundary layer, renders below-average confidence in the overall intensity/coverage of the Monday afternoon/evening severe threat. ...Grams.. 05/31/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .