Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat May 31 2025 06:01:00 ACUS01 KWNS 310600 SWODY1 SPC AC 310559 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN KS INTO OK... ....SUMMARY... Large hail and severe outflow gusts will be possible this afternoon into tonight from southern Kansas across central Oklahoma to the Red River. ....Central/southern Plains... A compact mid/upper-level shortwave trough will dig south-southeastward from the Dakotas towards the ArkLaTex region through the forecast period. In conjunction with this system, a weak cold front will move southward from KS into OK, with one or more weak surface waves developing along the front through the day. Modest low-level moisture transport combined with evapotranspiration will aid in dewpoints rising to near/above 60 F in advance of the front, resulting in moderate diurnal destabilization. Isolated storm development will be possible near the front across southern KS/northern OK by late afternoon, with some increase in storm coverage possible into the evening across OK. Favorable deep-layer shear and long hodographs will support supercells capable of large hail and localized severe gusts with initial development. Low-level flow/shear will not be particularly strong, but a tornado cannot be ruled out with any stronger/sustained supercell. Some clustering will be possible with time, which could spread some severe threat into parts of north TX later tonight. ....Eastern KY/TN into the Mid Atlantic... A deep mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across much of the eastern CONUS today. A mid/upper-level speed maximum will move through the base of the trough across NC/VA during the afternoon and early evening. Despite limited low-level moisture, cold temperatures aloft will support sufficient buoyancy for widely scattered storm development. Isolated hail and damaging gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. Any clustering of storms could result in more concentrated areas of wind-damage potential, but confidence is currently too low to include greater severe probabilities. ....Central/south FL... Convection will likely be ongoing across the central FL Peninsula at the start of the period. This convection will spread southward through the day, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support modest storm organization and some potential for gusty/damaging winds, and perhaps small to near-severe hail. Most guidance suggests redevelopment of deep convection across the peninsula later tonight, with sufficient deep-layer shear remaining in place for a few stronger storms. ....CO/NM... Similar to Friday, a couple strong storms could develop from south-central/southeast CO into northeast NM, within a modestly moist and unstable environment. While confidence in more than a very isolated severe threat is low at this time, severe probabilities may need to be considered if trends support greater coverage of severe potential into the late afternoon and evening. ...Dean/Wendt.. 05/31/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .